Abstract
This project employs quantitative methods to predict when demographic shifts in U.S. border states, especially Texas, are likely to create significant impacts on U.S. Presidential elections. Texas, the second-largest state by population, is already a majority-minority state, and based on demographic projections supplied by the Office of the Texas State Demographer (OSD), Hispanics will soon outnumber whites in the state. Because Hispanics in Texas (and nationwide) vote for Democrats more frequently than Republicans, this demographic shift has serious implications for the expectation that Texas is a reliable “red” (Republican) state for Presidential elections. Over time, similar demographic trends have helped turn California from a mixed state which produced Ronald Reagan (and voted for him twice), to perhaps the most reliable “blue” state in the country, and also changed New Mexico from a historical toss-up state to a reliable blue state.
My research aims to produce a robust population-based simulation predicting how the projected demographic changes in the Lone Star State will affect its leanings in future Presidential elections. To date, I have completed background research on demographic and voting trends for Hispanic, African-American, and white non-Hispanic populations, and built a Monte Carlo simulation in R to generate results for elections based on party preferences, voter turnout, and the effects of Voter ID laws for these ethnic groups, with population projections from three different migration scenarios provided by the Texas OSD. The output includes a histogram of the simulation’s projected election results from 2012-2048, and a graph of Democratic win probability based on those results.
The U.S. may be on the verge of a political realignment as substantial as the one that switched the South from blue to red after the passage of the Civil Rights Act in 1964. In today’s increasingly multi-cultural United States, the xenophobic rhetoric of many mainstream Republicans is unlikely to woo the voters of the future. And while the idea of a permanent Democratic majority is as unrealistic now as the idea of a permanent Republican majority was in 1969 (Kevin Phillips), or in 2004 (Karl Rove), it is clear that the Republicans cannot win the presidency without winning Texas.
