Background
This presidential election simulation is based on Texas’ historical voting data, and demographic projections from the Texas Office of the State Demographer (OSD). You can manipulate three of the simulation parameters to test out your own assumptions about Texas’ future.
Migration estimate
Texas grew rapidly during the 2000-2010 time frame, with migrants coming from Latin America and from elsewhere in the U.S. Hispanic and black populations grew the most during that time frame. To assist governmental agencies with planning for future growth, OSD developed three scenarios for future Texas population. You can choose which one to use for the simulation; OSD suggests using the 50% estimate.
- 100%: Migration at the same rate as 2000-2010
- 50%: Migration at 50% of the 2000-2010 rate (default)
- 0%: No migration
Blueness by ethnic group
One factor that may affect future elections is changing “blueness” (Democratic voting rates) among racial and ethnic groups. You can test the simulation with different assumptions by moving the sliders. Defaults are based on 2012 election results by racial/ethnic group.
Turnout by ethnic group
Another factor that may affect future elections is turnout among eligible voting populations. Whites historically vote at significantly higher rates than Hispanics. Blacks have historically voted at lower rates than whites, but in the 2012 election black turnout rates actually surpassed whites. You can test the simulation with different assumptions by moving the sliders. Defaults are based on 2012 election turnout rates by racial/ethnic group.